On Tue, 23 Jun 2009, Richard wrote:
Has anyone else noticed that there are
"waves" of certain kinds of
equipment being surplussed all at once?
Its most readily apparent when monitoring
govliquidation.com because
the military tends to surplus an item across and entire force (Navy,
Air Force, Army, etc.) and scads of the stuff shows up all at once.
However, I see it as well in commercial circles. A new generation of
technology is deployed and an entire wave of the old technology is
surplussed all at once. After that big wave subsides, those items
will be hard to find.
I think these surplus waves are what people are remembering when they say
"VT100s are all over the place, dirt cheap" because they remember the
VT100 surplus wave when you could barely walk through a surplus house
without tripping over one. Nowadays they are few and far between.
I seem to recall some discussions of "ownership humps" over the
lifetime of equipment. Initially noone, or few, owns it. Then lots
of people own it. Then some people own it because lots of people surplus
it and there's a glut in the secondary market. Then noone, or few,
owns it again and the secondary market is pricey for spares. Then
noone owns it anymore and the secondary market is overpriced, still
thinking people need spares. Eventually the secondary market crashes
and they dump their holdings and collectors might be able to
experience a slight secondary surplus wave. After that, its hen's
teeth time.
Thoughts?
I suspect you're definitely on to something, at least with regards to modern
equipment. I know that now days where I work, once it's off warrenty, it's
time to start thinking about replacing it. Of course everything runs on
EM64T based servers now as well, except for a few legacy applications.
Reliability seems to have gone down a lot as well. We often see stuff dying
in waves once it reaches a certain age.
You did fail to mention one *KEY* factor, and that is Geography. As near as
I can tell around here PDT-11's have always been rare as hens teeth, the
same is not true for around what was DEC country (the Mill, etc.).
Zane