At 5:17 PM -0500 3/8/06, Tim Shoppa wrote:
I'm going to speculate that in 20 years, CD-R
readers are going
to be somewhat specialty items, not too different than finding a
vinyl record player today. Yeah, there's probably some store
in town that has one or two. 100 years, that's a lot harder to
Let's see, I can name 5 stores locally off the top of my head that
sell turntables. Ranging from the cheap $100 Sony's at Best Buy, to
well past the Rega P3 I'm using. In the last two months I've
purchased two current Album's on vinyl, and can't remember when or
what the last CD I purchased was :^) Oh, and I've purchased about 14
albums on vinyl in the last week, just not current music. :^)
guess. Media longevity is kinda irrelevant if your
descendants
throw it away because they don't know what it is or how to read
it. (I'm 100% sure that most kids today don't know how to play
a vinyl record... much less dial a rotary dial telephone!) It
doesn't matter much that readers are available as long as everyone
believes they aren't easy to find.
I've got to agree here, using your own examples, most people find it
hard to believe that Vinyl is booming, sales are actually up, while
sales of CD's, SA-CD's and DVD-A are all down.
In 100 years it'll be like a cylinder record. Yeah,
my dad still
has cylinder records and a player, as do museums.
Would you believe that you can still buy at least new model of player
for Cylinder records. It isn't cheap, but it is available.
All this tells me that there is a good chance you'll at least be able
to get new CD-Players for music in 100 years if the disks are still
readable. CD-ROM drives seem more than a little less likely.
Zane
--
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| Zane H. Healy | UNIX Systems Administrator |
| healyzh at
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| MONK::HEALYZH (DECnet) | Classic Computer Collector |
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