On 6/1/2006 at 9:48 PM Jules Richardson wrote:
Depends how long they can hold out. The sort of
"go for the cheapest
short-term option rather than a quality long-lasting product" seems
systematic of today's society and affects all aspects of life.
One thing in the computer biz that militates against "long lasting" is
Moore's Law. You know, that "Your state-of-the-art PeeCee is obsolete by
the time you get it home" effect. When and if true high-speed internet
connectivity becomes realistic for the majority of the population,I'd
expect this trend to accelerate. Right now, a 600 MHz PIII does just fine
for a dialup or 1.5Mbps DSL connection, even running a pig like XP.
In fact, Google's (right across the street from Sun, BTW) shown that you
don't need hi-rel or particularly powerful computing resources to get a job
done.
Maybe Sun should have paid more attention to their neighbors. Maybe they
did and decided that they couldn't do anything about it.
Okay, so if the hardware doesn't matter that much, how about the software?
Well, there's Solaris, but I've never found a compelling reason to use it.
Microsoft is still the heavyweight and will continue to be so as long as
its software is bundled with new systems. In fact, I suspect that
shrink-wrapped software box sales of Vista will probably be disappointing,
but that Vista will occupy the majority position in PCs simply through the
phenomenon of normal product replacement.
Cheers,
Chuck