From: "Michael Nadeau"
<menadeau(a)mediaone.net>
I disagree for a few simple reasons: First, there aren't enough systems
worth the kind of money that would interest an investor/speculator. You need
to get into a five-figure value range and then have a history of value
growth over years. The only computer I can think of in that class is the
Apple I. Investors want to buy a few things for a lot of money that will
appreciate over time. Otherwise, it's too much work and overhead.
If you think about big crook investors (*1) you're maybe right. But
Investment on a 100USD up to a few thousand is still a thing to
considere. Think about investment in Stamps or old coins. The
situation is (collector/investor wise) quite similar. 90% of
the items collected are of low value, and not very interesting
investor only people. Of the remaining 10% again 9/10th are
only of some worth - none of them as a single unit interesting
as a big investment (but maybe as a collection). Only in the
remaining 1% you'll find units where a single unit may represent
significant value to Joe Average. Now we are talking about sums
of the 4 to 5 digit range. And among all these zillions of various
coins and stanps only a few, a number almost indistinguishable
from Zero got the real big numbers on the price tag.
Similar in Computers: For most units the scrap metal value (what
a scrap dealer will pay) is higher than the collectors value
(what a collector is willing to pay) - as in Coins, where for
most coins the value is around the metal value. And the most
units, where a price higher than this is possible it's in a
low range - and as for Coins/stamps, they are of no value for
investment (*2). Now there come in the few systems where a price
may be obtained, reasonable higher than average: e.g. Chicklet
PET, Altair, SOL, IMSAI, etc. And these are the systems where
investment outside of the hobby scene may take place. As a
last category we have again the exceptional pices like an
Apple 1. In my eyes out of scope for reasonable consideration.
(*1) It shouldbe noted that most forms of art investment are
_not_ going for the few Rembrands or Van Gochs - these are
just the ones who make the news
(*2) If I talk here about Investment I always refer to pure
money orientated and 'chart' driven investment - not Investment
where you'd need some expertise to see a future gain.
Second, buying computers as an investment is not like
collecting, say, art.
If not cared for, many of the most valuable systems deteriorate over time,
and with them their value. A speculator would have to invest in maintenance.
And then there are the storage and transportation issues involved with
larger systems.
Now here you miss some of the most important factors in art collections.
Just hanging the picture along the wall and waiting for a higher price
is the best way to lower your value. Art work of most kind requires a
constant maintanance and repair. Even more when you think about 'modern'
art forms - 'stuff' made by artists like Beuys or other 'contemporary'
artists require extensive skills. And their 'work' was sold for more
than a few bucks.
Finally, no infrastructure exists to broker the buying
and selling of
investor-level systems (even if they did exist in number). eBay is really
just a big yard sale. You don't have the equivalent of a Sotheby's auction
house or even of a high-end antique dealer. It took decades for this type of
infrastructure to develop for the antique auto hobby.
Jep, I belive these things will show up during the next 10-15 years.
As the hobby grows (and it will whether we like it or
not), it will attract
attention from mainstream media and people who think they can make a quick
buck. (and a buck is about all they will make). The bozos among them will be
a nuisance, but in the long run greater awareness of the hobby will result
in more systems being saved.
Agreed.
Ciao
H.
--
VCF Europa 3.0 am 27./28. April 2002 in Muenchen
http://www.vcfe.org/