6 Apr
2005
6 Apr
'05
1:45 p.m.
I maintain that Ebay does reflect the state of the market subject to a
couple of limitations.
1) Ebay is a *retail* venue although bargains can be had.
2) Looking at *only* the final bid price to determine value is stupid!
My general rule of thumb is to go back to the third highest bidder as
that eliminates the "game players" who bid with the "Oh yea, take
this"
mentality.
For myself, unless something is offered at substantially less that what
I
think it is worth, I don't bid. Not regularly checking ebay now helps
with
this approach :).
A while ago I was discussing EBay-like prices with
people (for old
computer stuff). Their argument was that EBay prices reflect the true
state of the market and the true worth of classic computer items.
I can see their side of it I suppose; I was just amazed that - coming
from a buying point of view - they just didn't believe that a world
existed outside of EBay. Which is fine by me if they want to keep on
paying EBay prices for things (whether they believe they're being ripped
off or not) - I'll just carry on using my brain and getting hold of
things via other routes.
6 Apr
6 Apr
8:52 p.m.
2) Looking at *only* the final bid price to determine
value is stupid!
My general rule of thumb is to go back to the third highest bidder as
that eliminates the "game players" who bid with the "Oh yea, take
this"
mentality.
Correct. Once you start to really look at the price distibution over
several sales, you get a more accurate idea of the price. Ebay still
fetches a good buck for many things, but not every sale goes thru the
roof. Far from it - if they did, I would be a happy man.
On a side, and related note, I have pretty much outgrown mocking clueless
sellers about trying to get way too much for their wares. They are just
that - clueless. We have a clue about what the stuff is worth, but on the
flip side, we as a group have little to no clue about other antiques and
collectables. For example, think about this - if some old Aunt of yours
died and left you a collection of Llardo figurines, Roman pottery, or
antique 19th century medicine bottles, I bet most of us would start
getting dollar signs in our eyes. Clueless!
Give it up, guys...
William Donzelli
aw288 at osfn.org
7 Apr
7 Apr
3:15 p.m.
On Wed, 6 Apr 2005, Marvin Johnston wrote:
I maintain that Ebay does reflect the state of the
market subject to a
couple of limitations.
1) Ebay is a *retail* venue although bargains can be had.
2) Looking at *only* the final bid price to determine value is stupid!
My general rule of thumb is to go back to the third highest bidder as
that eliminates the "game players" who bid with the "Oh yea, take
this"
mentality.
I think it's worth reiterating that eBay is only one data point.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
3:35 p.m.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Vintage Computer Festival" <vcf at siconic.com>
To: "General Discussion: On-Topic and Off-Topic Posts"
<cctalk at classiccmp.org>
Sent: Thursday, April 07, 2005 3:15 PM
Subject: Re: And $500 gets you...
On Wed, 6 Apr 2005, Marvin Johnston wrote:
Festival
Its a very visible data point. Anybody with an ebay account can keep track
of what systems they are interested in were sold (if they sold which is
always good to know) for. Nobody knows what you can get a system for Sellam
because it is not mentioned in public, so the deal might well not even exist
to the rest of us collectors.
There are peaks and valleys of what something sells for on ebay just like
any other venue. The shear volume of same items sold over a long period of
time to me is a good indication of what the retail value of that items is ,
more accurate then any printed price guide or somebody bragging about
getting one for a buck at a flee market 2000 miles from me.
I maintain that Ebay does reflect the state of
the market subject to a
couple of limitations.
1) Ebay is a *retail* venue although bargains can be had.
2) Looking at *only* the final bid price to determine value is stupid!
My general rule of thumb is to go back to the third highest bidder as
that eliminates the "game players" who bid with the "Oh yea, take
this"
mentality.
I think it's worth reiterating that eBay is only one data point.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer 
3:42 p.m.
Ya know... far be it from me to ever scream about posts... but we really
have beat the "ebay price points" topic to a pulp many, many, many, many
times over. It's obvious what some people think and what others think.
Nothing new ever comes along in that discussion.
Just my own two millidollars worth ;)
Jay
10 Apr
10 Apr
10:46 p.m.
On Thu, 7 Apr 2005, Jay West wrote:
Ya know... far be it from me to ever scream about
posts... but we really
have beat the "ebay price points" topic to a pulp many, many, many, many
times over. It's obvious what some people think and what others think.
Nothing new ever comes along in that discussion.
Just my own two millidollars worth ;)
Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
11:24 p.m.
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Foust" <jfoust at threedee.com>
To: <cctalk at classiccmp.org>
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 10:57 PM
Subject: Re: And $500 gets you...
At 09:46 PM 4/10/2005, Vintage Computer Festival
wrote:
He is dealer, anytime you make a living off of your hobby you will view it
differently then somebody who does it purely for entertainment value.
Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest
the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
Like eBay, you're just one data point. :-)
- John
12 Apr
12 Apr
8:57 p.m.
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, Teo Zenios wrote:
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Foust" <jfoust at threedee.com>
To: <cctalk at classiccmp.org>
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 10:57 PM
Subject: Re: And $500 gets you...
Excuse me, but I am NOT a "dealer". It's quite obvious you don't know
the
first thing about me. Please do not feign to speak for me and I won't go
around telling people you flip burgers for a living.
Okay?
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
At 09:46 PM 4/10/2005, Vintage Computer Festival
wrote:
He is dealer, anytime you make a living off of your hobby you will view it
differently then somebody who does it purely for entertainment value. Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest
the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
Like eBay, you're just one data point. :-)
- John
9:32 p.m.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Vintage Computer Festival" <vcf at siconic.com>
To: "General Discussion: On-Topic and Off-Topic Posts"
<cctalk at classiccmp.org>
Sent: Tuesday, April 12, 2005 8:57 PM
Subject: Re: And $500 gets you...
Well you do sell equipment, and do appraisals don't you? I thought you were
a collector/dealer, was I wrong?
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, Teo Zenios wrote:
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Foust" <jfoust at threedee.com>
> To: <cctalk at classiccmp.org>
> Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 10:57 PM
> Subject: Re: And $500 gets you...
>
>
> > At 09:46 PM 4/10/2005, Vintage Computer Festival wrote:
> > >Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest the last time I
posted a
> > >long diatribe about it. You'd think
people would listen to an expert
;)
> >
> > Like eBay, you're just one data point. :-)
> >
> > - John
> >
>
> He is dealer, anytime you make a living off of your hobby you will view
it
differently
then somebody who does it purely for entertainment value.
Excuse me, but I am NOT a "dealer". It's quite obvious you don't know
the
first thing about me. Please do not feign to speak for me and I won't go
around telling people you flip burgers for a living.
Okay?
--
10:17 p.m.
On Tue, 12 Apr 2005, Teo Zenios wrote:
Well you do sell equipment, and do appraisals
don't you? I thought you were
a collector/dealer, was I wrong?
I wish I sold stuff, but no, my acquire/dispense ratio is probably like
1000:1. I acquire way more than I get rid of. When I do sell, it's
because I have a large surplus of something.
I'm not a computer dealer. I'm a hobbyist like you. I'm a collector.
I'm a historian. I'm an archivist. I'm also a consultant that uses all
the skills I've acquired as a hobbyist to make a living.
What might be confusing you is that I do occasionally BROKER sales.
That's quite a bit different than what a dealer does, which is buys
specifically to sell at a higher price. I don't do that now, never have,
and probably never will. Collectors who truly love what they collect
don't make good dealers.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
8:55 p.m.
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, John Foust wrote:
At 09:46 PM 4/10/2005, Vintage Computer Festival
wrote:
But unlike eBay, I don't inflate values ;)
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest
the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
Like eBay, you're just one data point. :-)
10:11 p.m.
On Tue, 12 Apr 2005, Vintage Computer Festival wrote:
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, John Foust wrote:
My real answer should have been, I take *ALL* datapoints that I can find
and turn them into a normalized valuation. It is NOT a datapoint, but a
report on the current price as dictated by the market as a whole. To say
that I'm "just one data point" entirely misses the point of what an
"appraisal" is.
;)
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
At 09:46 PM 4/10/2005, Vintage Computer Festival
wrote:
But unlike eBay, I don't inflate values ;) Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest
the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
Like eBay, you're just one data point. :-) 
13 Apr
13 Apr
9:54 a.m.
At 09:11 PM 4/12/2005, Vintage Computer Festival wrote:
On Tue, 12 Apr 2005, Vintage Computer Festival wrote:
To decry the notion that you're "just one data point" entirely misses the
point of what a "market" or a "mailing list" is. There's nothing
wrong with being a well-known or respected expert, but you can't
forget that there's no certification involved. I hope you aren't
disappointed when someone doesn't respect what you're saying.
It's not your fault.
I made my remark because you expressed surprise that someone wasn't
listening. Perhaps some readers missed your last long (and no doubt
valuable because it was correct) diatribe when it flew past last time,
and they missed it in the archives. Because this is a mailing list,
we are forever doomed to repeat ourselves. Perhaps the KB or Wiki
will help there.
I suspect there are other classic computer experts out there who
don't read this list. Some experts might not enjoy the flamefests
or taking the bait of trolls. It might take a lifetime for an
expert to become known as "The Expert" in some aspect of
this type of collecting or to become well-known for providing
reputable insurance-quality valuations.
Knowing the trend of eBay prices is a perfectly valid sub-genre of
valuations. It's a great place to unload items for cash.
- John
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, John Foust wrote:
My real answer should have been, I take *ALL* datapoints that I can find
and turn them into a normalized valuation. It is NOT a datapoint, but a
report on the current price as dictated by the market as a whole. To say
that I'm "just one data point" entirely misses the point of what an
"appraisal" is. At 09:46 PM 4/10/2005, Vintage Computer Festival
wrote:
But unlike eBay, I don't inflate values ;) Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest
the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
Like eBay, you're just one data point. :-)
10:39 a.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, John Foust wrote:
Criticism is welcome; insults are not taken so well ;) And I'm sorry if I
got a bit touchy after being described as a "dealer", but in my opinion
that word has a negative connotation in this hobby, and I don't want
people to be left with the wrong impression of just what it is I do. And
in case you don't pay attention to signatures, mine has included a link to
the VintageTech website for at least the past four years, and a quick
stroll through the pages of my website explains EXACTLY what I do. No
where on that website has it ever (and you can check with www.archive.org)
said that I buy & sell computers. And if you're really paying attention,
you'll notice that the "Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers" included in my
signature is followed by "at http://marketplace.vintage.org"quot;, and a quick
stroll over there quickly reveals it's a trading place for collectors
that I happen to host along with Patrick Rigney.
My real answer
should have been, I take *ALL* datapoints that I can find
and turn them into a normalized valuation. It is NOT a datapoint, but a
report on the current price as dictated by the market as a whole. To say
that I'm "just one data point" entirely misses the point of what an
"appraisal" is.
To decry the notion that you're "just one data point" entirely misses the
point of what a "market" or a "mailing list" is. There's
nothing
wrong with being a well-known or respected expert, but you can't forget that there's no certification involved. I
hope you aren't
disappointed when someone doesn't respect what you're saying.
It's not your fault.
In fact, there is certification available:
http://www.appraisers.org/
I just have not yet had a need to go that full route, though I have
studied and do follow their principles, practices, and code of ethics.
It's in my best interest to do so in case I ever have to defend a
valuation for a client if, for example, they were to get audited or if
they were trying to recover compensation for a loss.
What I was trying to explain with my previous message was that there's a
difference between watching eBay and using that as a guide versus having a
wide breadth and depth of experience and knowledge coupled with a long
historical outlook and therefore having a strongly developed instinct for
what things are "worth". I'm not saying I'm the only one here who
knows
how to do this...far from it, as I know of at least half a dozen people
here who's valuations I would trust and who could just as authoritatively
provide appraisals if they chose to do that. But I have made it my
business to understand this market, and I'm confident that I do, and to
have people constantly hold up eBay as the "market" is bothersome to me.
The real problem in all this is that this hobby, as a whole, is so
un/mis-informed when it comes to the values of old computers that you
consistently get these wild price fluctuations. And the fact that most of
the actual sales occur through eBay only exacerbates the problem, because
the prices can and do wildly fluctuate there as well. A stupid bidding
war can erupt between two inexperienced bidders who let their emotions
take them for a ride, driving up the price to a ridiculous level for
something that is a clearly being over-valued by both. And yet others
get lucky by using the search engine creatively to find deals hidden away
where others don't find them, and walk away with virtual steals.
My apologies in advance to the person who posted the message, but a
perfect example is the person who just yesterday extrapolated a $300
valuation for a KIM-1 based on a lot that sold for $642. This is an
entirely invalid approach to valuing something. Aside from the fact that
this is but one data point, there might've been something in the lot more
desirable than the KIM-1 (in this case two of them) itself. And in fact
there was, arguably. The S-100 bus attachment in that auction is rare and
somewhat desirable to those who collect KIM-1 stuff or SBCs in general,
and I know some people would probably pay more for that then a KIM-1.
How many times does it need to be repeated that eBay is NOT the Market? I
know a lot of people got into this hobby by assembling their collection
from eBay and so it is all they know, but understand
that eBay is ONE PART
of the Market, and to think that the world is eBay, and eBay
is flat, and
you fall off the world at the edges is foolish.
If you want to use auction results as a valuation, you would be better
served to use the sales numbers at the Vintage Computer Marketplace. It
consists of a MUCH BETTER informed group of users (buyers and sellers
alike) and therefore the sales are way more consistent with what I would
consider "actual market value". It doesn't get nearly the volume that
eBay does, but we're hoping to change that soon.
In the meantime, if anyone wants a quick & dirty valuation of something,
I'll be happy to provide a valuation via e-mail. You can then couple my
response with whatever other information you have to make a much more
informed decision to buy or sell.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
noon
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
From: "Vintage Computer Festival" <vcf at siconic.com>
Criticism is welcome; insults are not taken so well ;)
And I'm sorry if I
got a bit touchy after being described as a "dealer", but in my opinion
that word has a negative connotation in this hobby, and I don't want
people to be left with the wrong impression of just what it is I do. And
in case you don't pay attention to signatures, mine has included a link to
the VintageTech website for at least the past four years, and a quick
stroll through the pages of my website explains EXACTLY what I do. No
where on that website has it ever (and you can check with www.archive.org)
said that I buy & sell computers. And if you're really paying attention,
you'll notice that the "Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers" included in my
signature is followed by "at http://marketplace.vintage.org"quot;, and a quick
stroll over there quickly reveals it's a trading place for collectors
that I happen to host along with Patrick Rigney.
Admittedly, you have a name and a reputation, and many people know who you
are.
However, expecting everyone to have known or cared enough to follow your
links and figured out who you are and what you do, is a bit of a stretch. I
have followed the links, and still have, at best, a hazy notion of how your
days are spent. Which is (or should be) OK.
> forget that there's no certification
involved. I hope you aren't
> disappointed when someone doesn't respect what you're saying.
> It's not your fault.
I think the point was that we all wish everyone else appreciated our
opinions. I certainly feel the world undervalues my opinions; I put a lot
of work into forming them, after all. But they don't value my opinions as I
do, and they won't. (At least that's what I got out of it.)
What I was trying to explain with my previous message
was that there's a
difference between watching eBay and using that as a guide versus having a
wide breadth and depth of experience and knowledge coupled with a long
historical outlook and therefore having a strongly developed instinct for
what things are "worth". I'm not saying I'm the only one here who
knows
how to do this...far from it, as I know of at least half a dozen people
here who's valuations I would trust and who could just as authoritatively
provide appraisals if they chose to do that. But I have made it my
business to understand this market, and I'm confident that I do, and to
have people constantly hold up eBay as the "market" is bothersome to me.
I understand your frustration, but I still disagree. Ebay is "the market"
in a sense similar to the way we say wall street is "the market". That is
the place where large (relatively) numbers of buyers and sellers are doing
business. It simply does not matter that you, or Warren Buffet, can get
better deals elsewhere.
That may get a knee jerk, so let me make an example. I recently acquired a
BC80M cable. When I acquired this cable, I looked at various dealers who
stock obsolete DEC cables, and I saw prices from $150-$225. Those prices
make sense to me. If I had a machine that was down, and I needed it up
right now, those prices are reasonable, probably even cheap, to get it up
again with a minimum of fuss.
I also figure the price on eBay would be about half that. But with eBay, I
have to wait for someone to list it, and take my chances with the others
that want it. The extra $80 that the dealer wants, is the price of the
speed, convenience, and security. It goes to cover the dealer's costs in
providing that to me.
There is a scrap dealer here in town I could have asked about the cable. I
might have gotten it for substantially less than the eBay price. I
certainly would have, if shipping were involved. But I'd have saved him the
trouble of listing it, shipping it, etc. Ebay and the dealer also spare me
the hassle of cruising dozens of surplus places, looking for that darn BC80M
cable. (Actually, I was looking for BC80J, but BC80M will do.)
On the other hand, what I actually paid for my cable was $0. Nada. A
friend happens to have one, and will ship it to me as a favor. Does that
mean the value of the item is $0? No. It means I have better connections
than the average guy. So, in my opinion, does getting it from the scrap
dealer.
Each of these venues has a rational price for the item. (Even my friend,
who is no doubt hoping I can help figure out his power supply problem.)
Which one we call "the market" should depend on which is available to the
average buyer.
The real problem in all this is that this hobby, as a
whole, is so
un/mis-informed when it comes to the values of old computers that you
consistently get these wild price fluctuations. And the fact that most of
the actual sales occur through eBay only exacerbates the problem, because
the prices can and do wildly fluctuate there as well. A stupid bidding
war can erupt between two inexperienced bidders who let their emotions
take them for a ride, driving up the price to a ridiculous level for
something that is a clearly being over-valued by both. And yet others
get lucky by using the search engine creatively to find deals hidden away
where others don't find them, and walk away with virtual steals.
I think the price fluctuations are easily explained by people trying to
optimize their convenience, etc. I don't see that as irrational. People
who want it *now* will ocasionally skew eBay prices toward dealer prices
(and that's OK).
It's also OK that some put in extra work and pay for the item that way,
rather than with cash.
How many times does it need to be repeated that eBay
is NOT the Market? I
know a lot of people got into this hobby by assembling their collection
from eBay and so it is all they know, but understand that eBay is ONE PART
of the Market, and to think that the world is eBay, and eBay is flat, and
you fall off the world at the edges is foolish.
Sure, but we still have the semantic quibble about what people mean when
they say "the market" :-).
If you want to use auction results as a valuation, you
would be better
served to use the sales numbers at the Vintage Computer Marketplace. It
consists of a MUCH BETTER informed group of users (buyers and sellers
alike) and therefore the sales are way more consistent with what I would
consider "actual market value". It doesn't get nearly the volume that
eBay does, but we're hoping to change that soon.
Just a speculation, but I suspect the prices there will get more like
eBay's, if and when you get the volume.
In the meantime, if anyone wants a quick & dirty
valuation of something,
I'll be happy to provide a valuation via e-mail. You can then couple my
response with whatever other information you have to make a much more
informed decision to buy or sell.
That is a valuable service. Thanks!
Vince
2:42 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, vrs wrote:
Sure, and some people can be correct when they use that term while others
will be incorrect, or will be using it in an incomplete sense. If we are
going to agree to use a common language we must also agree to use common
definitions of the words in that language. Until now, I've never seen
anyone try to define "The Market" as "eBay".
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
However, expecting everyone to have known or cared
enough to follow your
links and figured out who you are and what you do, is a bit of a stretch. I
have followed the links, and still have, at best, a hazy notion of how your
days are spent. Which is (or should be) OK.
I don't understand how anyone could confuse me with being a "dealer".
I understand your frustration, but I still disagree.
Ebay is "the market"
in a sense similar to the way we say wall street is "the market". That is
the place where large (relatively) numbers of buyers and sellers are doing
business. It simply does not matter that you, or Warren Buffet, can get
better deals elsewhere.
I'm afraid you've boiled economics down to a simply unreal and nonsensical
interpretation.
Each of these venues has a rational price for the
item. (Even my friend,
who is no doubt hoping I can help figure out his power supply problem.)
Which one we call "the market" should depend on which is available to the
average buyer.
They are all part of The Market. There is no one place that you go to and
that is "The Market(TM)" with the reference prices for the rest of the
world to follow. What you mentioned (that I snipped) are all various data
points of The Market. Somewhere in there is The Market Value. You are
confusing points in The Market with The Market itself.
How many times
does it need to be repeated that eBay is NOT the Market? I
know a lot of people got into this hobby by assembling their collection
from eBay and so it is all they know, but understand that eBay is ONE PART
of the Market, and to think that the world is eBay, and eBay is flat, and
you fall off the world at the edges is foolish.
Sure, but we still have the semantic quibble about what people mean when
they say "the market" :-).
3:45 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
From: "Vintage Computer Festival" <vcf at siconic.com>
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, vrs wrote:
I think it's like confusing Silicon Valley (or Portland, Oregon) with the
world :-). Maybe if I lived and worked where you do, I would see hundreds
of different venues doing a brisk business in this stuff. As it is, I see
one local scrap guy (there are other local scrap guys, but they tend to
specialize in stuff I'm not interested in). I also see eBay, the commercial
dealers on the Internet, and private deals with people I know from the list.
And that's pretty much it.
So, then we'd have to ask if the market in places like Silicon Valley so
dwarfs the rest of the planet that *they* should be declared "the market".
I think the term "the market" should refer to wherever the bulk of the
available stuff trades, (provided that the venues included are actually open
to the general public). "Market value" should refer to something like the
median value in the distribution of the publicly available trades. (Though
that is a simplification that ignores the reasons there are different venues
with different prices in the first place.)
Vince
Sure, but we still have the semantic quibble
about what people mean when
they say "the market" :-).
Sure, and some people can be correct when they use that term while others
will be incorrect, or will be using it in an incomplete sense. If we are
going to agree to use a common language we must also agree to use common
definitions of the words in that language. Until now, I've never seen
anyone try to define "The Market" as "eBay".
4:01 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, vrs wrote:
I think it's like confusing Silicon Valley (or
Portland, Oregon) with the
world :-). Maybe if I lived and worked where you do, I would see hundreds
of different venues doing a brisk business in this stuff. As it is, I see
one local scrap guy (there are other local scrap guys, but they tend to
specialize in stuff I'm not interested in). I also see eBay, the commercial
dealers on the Internet, and private deals with people I know from the list.
And that's pretty much it.
So, then we'd have to ask if the market in places like Silicon Valley so
dwarfs the rest of the planet that *they* should be declared "the market".
I think the term "the market" should refer to wherever the bulk of the
available stuff trades, (provided that the venues included are actually open
to the general public). "Market value" should refer to something like the
median value in the distribution of the publicly available trades. (Though
that is a simplification that ignores the reasons there are different venues
with different prices in the first place.)
Hi Vince.
I think the myopia you're accusing me of having is affecting you. When I
say The Market I mean the pool of sales that occurs on a global basis.
I'm not talking about one particular geographic region or any one spot on
the Internet. The Market, by definition, is a conglomeration of all sales
happening at all times in all places.
I can't say that I have access to "all sales happening at all times in all
places", but I also don't just rely on one particular venue and call that
"The Market". That's just wrong and invalid.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
4:35 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
I think the myopia you're accusing me of having is
affecting you. When I
say The Market I mean the pool of sales that occurs on a global basis.
I'm not talking about one particular geographic region or any one spot on
the Internet. The Market, by definition, is a conglomeration of all sales
happening at all times in all places.
It is clear that the world looks different from our various perspectives. I
mostly agree with your definition of "the market", but would exclude private
sales, since by their nature they make price competition difficult (at
best).
I can't say that I have access to "all sales
happening at all times in all
places", but I also don't just rely on one particular venue and call that
"The Market". That's just wrong and invalid.
Agreed, unless the venue truly dwarfs the others under consideration.
(Which, from my limited perspective, eBay does, and by far.)
Vince
12:52 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
I think a bigger problem, and one that needs to be solved first, is
determining the size and scope of our hobby. How can even experts like
Sellam say "this hobby, as a whole, is so un/mis-informed..." when we're
not
sure what that "whole" is in the first place?
How many collectors exist in the world? For the "active" colletors, it's
not hard to figure out. There are 800-1,000 people in the classiccmp lists.
My newsletter has several hundred unique readers who aren't on classiccmp.
Erik Klein's vcforum has hundreds (thousands?) more. Older sites like
old-computers.com may have thousands of followers. Sellam's VCF mailing
list is huge too. These various resources are just a starting point, but I
think it is a safe estimate to say there are maybe 5,000-10,000 "active"
collectors in the world. (You have to consider ALL of the hobby web sites,
museums, niches, etc. to understand why I'm arriving at this five-figure
number -- there are a lot more than we initially think of.)
But here's the neat part: for every active collector, how many other people
just happen to own one or a few vintage computers, for sentimental reasons?
How many of them don't see themselves as "collectors" per se, but just as
ordinary nerds, for whom it just makes sense that really old computers are
appealing? People who don't use the term "vintage" to describe the old
Commodore they never got rid of, and who certainly don't know the term
VCF...? And what about the vintage videogame hobby, calculator collectors,
etc. -- do we count them?
What is the ratio? For each active member of our hobby, maybe there are two
or three people who are in the hobby and just don't know it yet. :) So
maybe there there 15,000, 20,000 collectors globally.
Once we have a real idea of the magic number, then we have to consider: are
those of us here on classiccmp the meat of the hobby, or just the
extremists? Are we the main curve, or the spike to be removed from the
sample?
-----Original Message-----
From: cctalk-bounces at classiccmp.org [mailto:cctalk-bounces at classiccmp.org]
On Behalf Of Vintage Computer Festival
Sent: Wednesday, April 13, 2005 10:40 AM
To: General Discussion: On-Topic and Off-Topic Posts
Subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
VCF wrote:
The real problem in all this is that this hobby, as a whole, is so
un/mis-informed when it comes to the values of old computers that you
consistently get these wild price fluctuations.
14 Apr
14 Apr
1:05 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, Computer Collector Newsletter wrote:
I think a bigger problem, and one that needs to be
solved first, is
determining the size and scope of our hobby. How can even experts like
Sellam say "this hobby, as a whole, is so un/mis-informed..." when we're
not
sure what that "whole" is in the first place?
No offense meant Evan, or any other proponents of this thread, but
I disagree that we need taxonomic analysis of what's essentially a
hobby. To what end this finely dividing us into categories?
While I recognize that the occasional artifact has intrinsic
value, most artifacts do not, no matter how old, and people prop
up insecurity with the alleged monetary value of their toys. I
like and use old computers, but I don't fool myself that they all
have any value to anyone but me and occasionally a tiny minority
of fellow fans.
I don't need to have monetary value attached to artifacts I like
to convince others they are worthwhile.
I fully engage and am comfortable with the need, and simple
desire, to buy, sell and even profit from "fun" artifacts, but I
intensely dislike the commodification of the culture itself and
will do what I can to undermine that.
Commodication of culture is a horrible capitalist tendency. I hope
this stops here.
1:50 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Jennings" <tomj at wps.com>
Cc: "'General Discussion: On-Topic and Off-Topic Posts'"
<cctalk at classiccmp.org>
Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 1:05 PM
Subject: RE: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
I don't need to have monetary value attached to
artifacts I like
to convince others they are worthwhile.
When I add to my collection I assume that the money spent will never be
recovered (the device has no value except to my curiosity). This attitude
keeps me from buying anything I really don't want and it keeps me from
buying on speculation that the thing will rise in value.
5:33 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
It is not captialist vs. some pure ideology that we should discuss.
I think you are mistaking greed that is pervasive these days in this
society with the need to make sure that there is some value attached
to things.
I do mind seeing the latest gizmo go on sale for $500 rather than $50
on ebay, but there will always be a bunch of people to try to do that.
I don't see that anything will be a commodity just because it has a
$ value.
Jim
Tom Jennings wrote:
Commodication of culture is a horrible capitalist tendency. I hope
this stops here.
5:59 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the 'Market' was Re: And $500 gets you...
you are mistaking greed that is pervasive these days
in this
society
You say that like it's a bad thing. Greed is what makes free markets
work efficiently. When you're buing a product, it's in your best interest
for it to be the case that everyone else buying that product is trying
to maximize the value they receive per money spent. Similarly, when
you're a seller, it's in your best interest that all the other sellers
are trying to maximize their money received per product sold.
I do mind seeing the latest gizmo go on sale for $500
rather than $50
on ebay, but there will always be a bunch of people to try to do that.
And either there will be people willing to buy that that price, or the
price will drop, or the sellers will stop trying to sell them.
Eric
15 Apr
15 Apr
1:35 a.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the 'Market' was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Thu, 14 Apr 2005, Eric Smith wrote:
You know, greed doesn't always have to be a factor in a sale. When I do
sell something from my collection, it's actually rare that I'm doing it to
maximize income. When I have gone for maximized profit in the past, it
was for doing things like funding a VCF.
I prefer to give someone a good deal to help foster a friendship.
Sometimes I just send something to someone (and even pay shipping) just
because. And other people have done the same with me. I think this is
more what the hobby is about.
Greed might be "good" and "right" but it's also not a
requirement.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
you are
mistaking greed that is pervasive these days in this
society
You say that like it's a bad thing. Greed is what makes free markets
work efficiently. When you're buing a product, it's in your best interest
for it to be the case that everyone else buying that product is trying
to maximize the value they receive per money spent. Similarly, when
you're a seller, it's in your best interest that all the other sellers
are trying to maximize their money received per product sold.
14 Apr
14 Apr
5:45 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
>>>> people prop up insecurity with the
alleged monetary value of their
toys. ... I don't need to have monetary value
attached to artifacts I like
to convince others they are worthwhile.
Wow, even though you said "no offense", that's still a heck of an
accusation. I wouldn't object if it was somehow grounded in evidence. I
was simply doubting Sellam's definition of "the market" by reminding us all
that we on classiccmp alone are hardly "the market" in question. I'm
baffled how you translated that into "Evan and anyone else concerned about
the value of their collections must be an insecure doofus."
>>> do what I can to undermine that...
horrible capitalist tendency...
You must be hanging around Michael Sokolov again. :)
-----Original Message-----
From: cctalk-bounces at classiccmp.org [mailto:cctalk-bounces at classiccmp.org]
On Behalf Of Tom Jennings
Sent: Thursday, April 14, 2005 1:05 PM
Cc: 'General Discussion: On-Topic and Off-Topic Posts'
Subject: RE: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, Computer Collector Newsletter wrote:
I think a bigger problem, and one that needs to be
solved first, is
determining the size and scope of our hobby. How can even experts
like Sellam say "this hobby, as a whole, is so un/mis-informed..."
when we're not sure what that "whole" is in the first place?
No offense meant Evan, or any other proponents of this thread, but I
disagree that we need taxonomic analysis of what's essentially a hobby. To
what end this finely dividing us into categories?
While I recognize that the occasional artifact has intrinsic value, most
artifacts do not, no matter how old, and people prop up insecurity with the
alleged monetary value of their toys. I like and use old computers, but I
don't fool myself that they all have any value to anyone but me and
occasionally a tiny minority of fellow fans.
I don't need to have monetary value attached to artifacts I like to convince
others they are worthwhile.
I fully engage and am comfortable with the need, and simple desire, to buy,
sell and even profit from "fun" artifacts, but I intensely dislike the
commodification of the culture itself and will do what I can to undermine
that.
Commodication of culture is a horrible capitalist tendency. I hope this
stops here.
7:11 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
Rumor has it that Computer Collector Newsletter may have mentioned these words:
[[ Ungh. - I wasn't going to jump into the fray on this one... but... Well,
I'll say "Just this once." Blame it on CRI. ]]
This isn't directed as an attack, but you said that there's no evidence
that the above happens.... That's patently wrong; as that's human nature.
[[ And to me, it seemed to me that Tom was making generalizations; not
pointing at you or any of us specifically. ]]
A *lot* of people see my 2004 Chevy Avalanche as a toy -- and they respond
in fashion. What I heard most is "Sweet Ride! What'd ya shell out for
that?" and "Must be nice to be rich enough to afford an expensive toy like
that!" I have yet to hear "How many HP does the engine crank?" or
"Boy,
I'll bet that rascal could pull people out of the ditch no problem!" (which
I did twice this winter.) I needed a dependable pickup that hauls 5
comfortably (as my children are growing, and I doubt they're gonna stop
even if I ask 'em nicely ;-). This truck does it, and does it well. I'm
certainly not going to try to pull my trailer or haul lumber (or yank
people out of the ditch) with an '84 Yugo! And used Avalanches in this town
are rarer than Amiga 4000Ts!
Until H^HDell, Goatway and HPieceOCrap came out with their sub-$1000 PCs,
cost was the first thing I always heard discussed about computers as well
(and not just mine, either)....
... *especially* when a large portion of the "unwashed masses" considered
computers as unnecessary toys instead of tools. Now that durned near
everyone's got [at least] one, the public opinion has changed a great deal.
"The geek shall inherit the earth" isn't such a stretch anymore. ;-)
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!! He's sleeping! Best not to wake him up, else he
might get cranky! ;-)
Laterz,
Roger "Merch" Merchberger
--
Roger "Merch" Merchberger | A new truth in advertising slogan
SysAdmin, Iceberg Computers | for MicroSoft: "We're not the oxy...
zmerch at 30below.com | ...in oxymoron!"
>>>> people prop up insecurity with the alleged monetary value of their
toys. ... I don't need to have monetary value attached to artifacts I like
to convince others they are worthwhile.
Wow, even though you said "no offense", that's still a heck of an
accusation. I wouldn't object if it was somehow grounded in evidence. I was simply doubting Sellam's definition of
"the market" by reminding us all
that we on classiccmp alone are hardly "the market" in question.
Sellam was stating that ePay *alone* is hardly "the market." ePay's a part
of it, so are we, so are the people who collect in silence. To say "I saw a
frobsnark sell on ePay for 3 cachillion deutschmarks, so that's what mine's
worth" is wrong, as it's not taking in many variables (location, rarity,
condition, and most importantly "don't trust one stoopid ePayer with more
money than brains" ;-) of "the market." On the flipside, if Sellam says
"In
my vast experience, I set the value of an Amiga 4000T with a 4Meg 3D Zorro
III card at $70" that doesn't automagically make me an idiot if I pay $80
for one in Northern Michigan; as they're exceptionally rare here. (Granted,
I probably have the only one in a 100 mile radius, so I'd have to buy it
from *me*... which I suppose *would* make me an
idiot... ;-) I've seen a
WWII Enigma, yet I've never seen a PERQ. Which is
rarer? (Heck, I've never
seen a black Apple II!)
I'm
baffled how you translated that into "Evan and anyone else concerned about
the value of their collections must be an insecure doofus."
I think he was trying to make the point more of "Why should we try to
quantify a hobby in which a very small percentage of the population
actually partake?" which is what you had said we should do.
Is there a grading scale for condition of computers, like there is for
coins? No. Should there be? I don't think so, as I don't think "the
market"
is going to grow to the point that it's necessary. How about mintages? Do
we have much more than guesses as to how many of [insert favorite computer
here] were made? How many survived? In most cases, no. However, until that
grading scale exists, and actual "global rarity" data exists, valuation is
going to be subjective, whether the primary datapoints you use are ePay or
Sellam's brain.
I'm with Tom - I don't *care* what my computer shiznit is worth. I do this
because I enjoy the hobby. My coin collection mirrors my computer
collection: 99% bog-standard crap, with a couple of rather interesting
conversation pieces. I like my Canadian Large Cent collection just as much
as my CoCo3 collection, and they're worth about the same amount - $20,
tops. Maybe.
>>> do
what I can to undermine that... horrible capitalist tendency...
You must be hanging around Michael Sokolov again. :)
15 Apr
15 Apr
1:30 a.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Thu, 14 Apr 2005, Computer Collector Newsletter wrote:
Wow, even though you said "no offense",
that's still a heck of an
accusation. I wouldn't object if it was somehow grounded in evidence. I
was simply doubting Sellam's definition of "the market" by reminding us
all
that we on classiccmp alone are hardly "the market" in question. I'm
Well, there we go again, putting words in my mouth. I never, no where,
ever, said that "we" are "The Market".
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
1:43 a.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
Sorry. I agree with you that there's a long way between "eBay is not the
market" and "we are".
It's really a different thread, but, does anyone have thoughts on size (in
population) of said undefined market?
The bigger this market gets, the better off we all are, despite any
temporary silliness with individuals and prices.
-----Original Message-----
From: cctalk-bounces at classiccmp.org [mailto:cctalk-bounces at classiccmp.org]
On Behalf Of Vintage Computer Festival
Sent: Friday, April 15, 2005 1:30 AM
To: General Discussion: On-Topic and Off-Topic Posts
Subject: RE: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
On Thu, 14 Apr 2005, Computer Collector Newsletter wrote:
Wow, even though you said "no offense",
that's still a heck of an
accusation. I wouldn't object if it was somehow grounded in evidence.
I was simply doubting Sellam's definition of "the market" by reminding
us all that we on classiccmp alone are hardly "the market" in
question. I'm
Well, there we go again, putting words in my mouth. I never, no where,
ever, said that "we" are "The Market".
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer
Festival
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
International Man of Intrigue and Danger
http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers
]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org
]
13 Apr
13 Apr
9:43 p.m.
New subject: Appraisals, value, the "Market" was Re: And $500 gets you...
Criticism is welcome; insults are not taken so well ;)
And I'm sorry if I
got a bit touchy after being described as a "dealer", but in my opinion
that word has a negative connotation in this hobby,
Just for the record, I am a dealer, and damn proud of it.
But I know what you mean about the negative connotation...
William Donzelli
Federal Signal and Ironworks, Inc.
aw288 at osfn.org
9:40 p.m.
To decry the notion that you're "just one
data point" entirely misses the
point of what a "market" or a "mailing list" is. There's
nothing
wrong with being a well-known or respected expert, but you can't
forget that there's no certification involved.
Actually, there is a certification process, at least in some areas. Around
here, NYU has a program I have been thinking of taking (my Aunt and cousin
have started already) to become a professional antiques appraiser.
And there is a LOT more than "one data point". We in the classic computing
field have SO much to learn about how the antiques and collectables market
works. None of us are experts, actually.
William Donzelli
aw288 at osfn.org
9:48 p.m.
At 08:40 PM 4/13/2005, William Donzelli wrote:
Being certified as an appraiser is one thing; it doesn't make
you an expert with opinions about eBay and markets, does it?
- John
To decry the
notion that you're "just one data point" entirely misses the
point of what a "market" or a "mailing list" is. There's
nothing
wrong with being a well-known or respected expert, but you can't
forget that there's no certification involved.
Actually, there is a certification process, at least in some areas. Around
here, NYU has a program I have been thinking of taking (my Aunt and cousin
have started already) to become a professional antiques appraiser.
9:59 p.m.
Being certified as an appraiser is one thing; it
doesn't make
you an expert with opinions about eBay and markets, does it?
Well, it sort of does, these days. The antiques and collectables market
and Ebay are connected so much that they will probably never come
apart. Even the big traditional auction houses have been changed by Ebay.
If a person is a professional appraiser and chooses not to study or
include Ebay, that person is either a fool or ethically challenged (or
both).
My take? Ebay is eighty or ninety percent of the market.
William Donzelli
aw288 at osfn.org
11:39 p.m.
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005 21:59:35 -0400 (EDT)
William Donzelli <aw288 at osfn.org> wrote:
'Collectibles' is one of those icky words, though. People with an
antiquarian bent really are a totally seperate thing from
'collectables.' 'Collectable' carries with it the important issue of
scarcity. Many people 'collect' things specifically because they are
scarce, and because they are scarce, without much a real focus of any
sort on the history behind said items.
And there are the many thriving 'created to be collectible' markets,
like collector's plates, trading cards, etc. Which very much are 'fat'
that needs to be 'cut away' from the statistics when determining how
'big' eBay is in the market. Who involved with real antiques or
historical classic computer hardware, for that matter, cares primarily
about the scarcity of the item in question. That's a
speculators/hoarders market and driven by fads.
For an (offtopic) illustration, I happen to enjoy collecting old minor
copper coins from the British empire. I enjoy the history behind it.
You'd find that things like 17th century British farthings can be had
for a few dollars, because there isn't big 'competition' in the
collector's market for them. If I wanted to blow a whole lot of money
chasing after highly desirable 'rarities,' I could instead collect US
Silver Dollars, or US Large Cents. But it doesn't interest me, in fact
the 'compete to get the rare thing nobody else has' aspect turns me off
to it.
Remember, eBay all started because of Pez dispenser collecting. Regular
old kitch, a 'scarcity' driven market if there ever was one.
Being
certified as an appraiser is one thing; it doesn't make
you an expert with opinions about eBay and markets, does it?
Well, it sort of does, these days. The antiques and collectables
market and Ebay are connected so much that they will probably never
come apart. Even the big traditional auction houses have been changed
by Ebay.
If a person is a professional appraiser and chooses not to study or
include Ebay, that person is either a fool or ethically challenged (or
both).
My take? Ebay is eighty or ninety percent of the market.
William Donzelli
aw288 at osfn.org
14 Apr
14 Apr
12:08 a.m.
'Collectibles' is one of those icky words,
though. People with an
antiquarian bent really are a totally seperate thing from
'collectables.' 'Collectable' carries with it the important issue of
scarcity. Many people 'collect' things specifically because they are
scarce, and because they are scarce, without much a real focus of any
sort on the history behind said items.
The real definition is the 100 year mark. Over 100 years, it is an
antique. Less, a collectable. The lines get blurred, however.
Yes, real antique dealers generally don't mix with collectables. One
reason is the image (they don't want to tarnish their image with sub-$1000
"junk"). The other reason is money - there is a lot more in the antiques
market. Selling collectables is a waste of their time.
On the other hand, collectable traders often have no problems dealing in
antiques.
And there are the many thriving 'created to be
collectible' markets,
like collector's plates, trading cards, etc. Which very much are 'fat'
that needs to be 'cut away' from the statistics when determining how
'big' eBay is in the market. Who involved with real antiques or
historical classic computer hardware, for that matter, cares primarily
about the scarcity of the item in question. That's a
speculators/hoarders market and driven by fads.
Computers will not be antiques for quite a few more years (about 50, I
suppose).
EVERYTHING becomes a collectable, then everything becomes an antique. It
has nothing to do with scarcity - there is a demand for just about
every mundane thing I can think of (even old bottlecaps, just like
Bert). And yes, speculators and hoarders exist in every market - from Pez
to Picasso.
Even things that are made to be collectable become collectables on their
own, and then antiques. Look at "junk" from the past Worlds Fairs, or for
that matter the "junk" ceramics and silverplate from 19th century Britain,
or the "junk" they used to sell at the Colluseum.
As far as Ebay "fat" is concerned - if the fat is changing the market, it
better be counted. The fat has always been around - pre-Ebay - and has an
effect.
William Donzelli
aw288 at osfn.org
11 Apr
11 Apr
7:08 a.m.
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, Vintage Computer Festival wrote:
Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest the
last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
What made you an "expert" in valuation of goods, other than the
fact that you have a warehouse loaded with stuff?
--f
12 Apr
12 Apr
9:10 p.m.
On Mon, 11 Apr 2005, Fred N. van Kempen wrote:
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005, Vintage Computer Festival wrote:
Not "goods" in general, but vintage computers. I've been in this hobby
for a long time. I've bought a LOT of stuff, hence, how else would I have
ended up with a "warehouse loaded with stuff"?
I made it my business to track and understand valuations of vintage
computers and have been doing it for longer than this hobby was even
considered a "hobby".
I do a lot of behind the scenes research that does not get discussed here.
I talk to a lot of people: collectors, scrappers, surplus store owners,
etc. I stay in tune with the "market".
Major institutions refer their donors to me when an appraisal is required.
Relative to how seriously other people take this, I can claim to be an
"expert".
What gives you the nerve to question my credentials?
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
Yeah, I thought I already put this issue to rest
the last time I posted a
long diatribe about it. You'd think people would listen to an expert ;)
What made you an "expert" in valuation of goods, other than the
fact that you have a warehouse loaded with stuff? 
13 Apr
13 Apr
2:52 a.m.
Vintage Computer Festival declared on Tuesday 12 April 2005 08:10 pm:
What gives you the nerve to question my credentials?
Ok, this thread has gone on WAAAAYYY too far. Could you guys take this
off list? PLEASE?
If I'd had realized that I was going to open Pandora's Box, I would have
left it alone. I apollogize to the rest of the list that's had to
endure this...
Pat
--
Purdue University ITAP/RCAC --- http://www.rcac.purdue.edu/
The Computer Refuge --- http://computer-refuge.org
10 Apr
10 Apr
10:44 p.m.
On Thu, 7 Apr 2005, Teo Zenios wrote:
Its a very visible data point. Anybody with an ebay
account can keep
track of what systems they are interested in were sold (if they sold
which is always good to know) for. Nobody knows what you can get a
system for Sellam because it is not mentioned in public, so the deal
might well not even exist to the rest of us collectors.
If your experience consists solely of tracking eBay auctions then you're
never going to fully understand the dynamics of this particular hobby.
You are seeing only a subset of the actual deals taking place on a daily,
weekly or monthly basis. If you're going to want to be in the business of
valuation, you first need to keep track of data points from many sources,
including thrift stores, flea markets, surplus shops, ham fests, private
sales, surplus auctions, etc. You also need to understand the dynamics of
each source. In the case of eBay, if you have a handle on the other
sources then you know that prices are consistently inflated in that venue,
so you know to apply a fudge factor to normalize an eBay sale. Thrift
stores and surplus auctions are generally on the lower end of the scale,
so you apply a fudge factor to normalize the value upwards.
There are peaks and valleys of what something sells
for on ebay just like
any other venue. The shear volume of same items sold over a long period of
time to me is a good indication of what the retail value of that items is ,
more accurate then any printed price guide or somebody bragging about
getting one for a buck at a flee market 2000 miles from me.
You're discounting the tendency of the eBay auction mechanism to
consistently inflate prices. This is well known and is the reason why
it's so popular with sellers. It's also the basis of the persistent
gripes you hear from buyers on eBay (i.e. eOverpay, etc.) If you don't
understand this then you have no business philosophizing about values.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
12 Apr
12 Apr
7:23 p.m.
On Sun, 10 Apr 2005 19:44:56 -0700 (PDT)
Vintage Computer Festival <vcf at siconic.com> wrote:
On Thu, 7 Apr 2005, Teo Zenios wrote:
Anything is 'worth' whatever a chump anywhere is worth paying for it. I
was at a household estate auction last weekend where they were selling
the entire contents of a house. People were willing to pay pretty much
the same amount that they would have paid at Kroeger for partially used
bottles of laundry detergent, and boxes of canned goods. At the other
end of the spectrum, I've seen 'Fourty boxes of misc household' on a
skid sell for $5 at other auctions.
It depends entirely on the venue, and who is present at the sale. The
one last weekend was 'regular rubes' in a suburban neighborhood setting.
The 'fourty boxes' auction was a Wednesday morning sale in a centrally
located warehouse district. Where it concerns 'collectables' or
hobby-related items, a huge 'reality distortion' phenomeon kicks in,
i.e. local-scarcity issues and other factors matter a lot.
Big venues like eBay that are worldwide in scope wash away some of these
effects, and introduce other ones. One thing for certain is that
'published' values in today's markets are obsolete/irrelevant before the
ink dries.
Its a very visible data point. Anybody with an
ebay account can keep
track of what systems they are interested in were sold (if they sold
which is always good to know) for. Nobody knows what you can get a
system for Sellam because it is not mentioned in public, so the deal
might well not even exist to the rest of us collectors.
If your experience consists solely of tracking eBay auctions then
you're never going to fully understand the dynamics of this particular
hobby. You are seeing only a subset of the actual deals taking place
on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. If you're going to want to be in
the business of valuation, you first need to keep track of data points
from many sources, including thrift stores, flea markets, surplus
shops, ham fests, private sales, surplus auctions, etc. You also need
to understand the dynamics of each source. In the case of eBay, if
you have a handle on the other sources then you know that prices are
consistently inflated in that venue, so you know to apply a fudge
factor to normalize an eBay sale. Thrift stores and surplus auctions
are generally on the lower end of the scale, so you apply a fudge
factor to normalize the value upwards.
There are peaks and valleys of what something
sells for on ebay just
like any other venue. The shear volume of same items sold over a
long period of time to me is a good indication of what the retail
value of that items is , more accurate then any printed price guide
or somebody bragging about getting one for a buck at a flee market
2000 miles from me.
You're discounting the tendency of the eBay auction mechanism to
consistently inflate prices. This is well known and is the reason why
it's so popular with sellers. It's also the basis of the persistent
gripes you hear from buyers on eBay (i.e. eOverpay, etc.) If you
don't understand this then you have no business philosophizing about
values.
10:02 p.m.
On Tue, 12 Apr 2005, Scott Stevens wrote:
Anything is 'worth' whatever a chump anywhere
is worth paying for it. I
Right, but for the rest of the real world, especially where institutions
and the government is concerned, a proper valuation is required.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
13 Apr
13 Apr
7:39 p.m.
Simple, Sellam:
You have stated that you are more interested in acquiring than selling.
(500 to 1 did you say?)
This means that you are biased in the direction of price deflation,
the opposite of a seller.
John A.
8 p.m.
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, John Allain wrote:
Simple, Sellam:
You have stated that you are more interested in acquiring than selling.
(500 to 1 did you say?)
This means that you are biased in the direction of price deflation,
the opposite of a seller.
If you saw my appraisal reports you would know that nothing could be
further from the truth.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
8:16 p.m.
Simple,
Sellam:
You have stated that you are more interested in acquiring than selling.
(500 to 1 did you say?)
This means that you are biased in the direction of price deflation,
the opposite of a seller.
If you saw my appraisal reports you would know that nothing could be
further from the truth.
15 Apr
15 Apr
12:53 a.m.
On Wed, 13 Apr 2005, Ashley Carder wrote:
Do you do appraisals that can be used by insurance
companies? I probably
need to get my 30-something year old systems appraised in case I have a
catastrophe of some sort. I need to add a rider to my insurance policy to
cover these systems. What started out as a small well-defined project is
rapidly growing into a large collection and filling up my shop!
Yes, I do. But unless it has substantial value it may not be worth it for
a hobbyist to pay for a proper appraisal. On the other hand, it would be
difficult if not impossible to insure your collection without a proper
appraisal, and even then you will probably pay hefty premiums to the
insurance company that may not make it worth insuring.
At any rate, contact me privately and we'll see what we can do.
--
Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org
[ Old computing resources for business || Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers ]
[ and academia at www.VintageTech.com || at http://marketplace.vintage.org ]
7066
days inactive
7075
days old
46 comments
18 participants
participants (18)
-
allain＠panix.com -
ard＠p850ug1.demon.co.uk -
aw288＠osfn.org -
chenmel＠earthlink.net -
eric＠brouhaha.com -
jfoust＠threedee.com -
jwest＠classiccmp.org -
jwstephens＠msm.umr.edu -
marvin＠rain.org -
news＠computercollector.com -
pat＠computer-refuge.org -
teoz＠neo.rr.com -
tomj＠wps.com -
vcf＠siconic.com -
vrs＠msn.com -
wacarder＠usit.net -
waltje＠pdp11.nl -
zmerch＠30below.com