My personal prediction is that we'll see copies of
OS X that run on a
normal PC
in less than a year after introduction. (Note I didn't say if those copies
would be legal or not.)
My gut feeling is, Apple knows this, expects it, and may not try to
really stop it.
They can't make a direct attack on Windows, they will loose.
But, if they release Intel based Macs with OS X designed to only run on
it, and the pirate world happens to hack a copy, and some hard core
people end up getting it and running it on generic PC hardware, all Apple
gets is an increase in OS market share. The people that are going to go
thru the effort to find, download, and do whatever is needed to get OS X
to run on generic hardware aren't likely to have been buying a Mac
anyway. So Apple doesn't loose sales to these people. What they gain is
an insight to how well OS X may fair against Windows. Also, some of those
people may like it enough to buy a Mac, or like it enough to tell their
friends, who may in turn buy a Mac. Apple makes sales, and doesn't really
loose any, and either way the OS market share increases, more people use
it, and more people develop for it.
If OS X on generic PCs become popular, then the pirates will cause the
market share to increase. If it gets to a critical level, Apple can then
decide to release OS X on its own and they will be at a market share
point to go against Windows. If they never get to that point, then they
never have to release a stand alone version.
-chris
<http://www.mythtech.net>