Welcome back Cord. It has indeed been a while. Lawrence On 8 Jan 2003, , Cord G. Coslor - Archive Soft wrote: lgwalker@ mts.net

What about Michael Nadeau's book? For more info about it go to: http://www.vintage.org/special/collectible.php Cheers, Bryan And thusly Mike spake:

Did the publisher tell you the book was out of stock, Eric? I know that's what Amazon says (my publisher is not all that fond of Amazon and only begrudgingly does business with them). I have copies that I sell directly--$29.95 by M.O. or check or PayPal. Sellam also sells the book through his website (www.vintage.org). The Haddock book cover is yellow, and my book is orange--wouldn't have been my first choice, but it's grown on me. --Mike Michael Nadeau Editor/Publisher Classic Tech, the Vintage Computing Resource www.classictechpub.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Eric Chomko" <vze2wsvr(a)verizon.net> To: <cctalk(a)classiccmp.org> Sent: Thursday, January 09, 2003 10:24 PM Subject: Re: Help with pricing on vintage computers? book sites audience, for them would be

that's error? I've heard from two people who have bought the book in the last few days--one directly from the publisher and another from Barnes & Noble, so it is available. Info for ordering from me is at http://www.classictechpub.com/collectmicros.htm, and I do have copies. --Mike Haddock's if of, would (a

The way the collector book business works, you keep a title in stock as long as you can. When you run out, you print more. This isn't like the computer book business where they have to make their money in 6 months or the title is obsolete. My contract, BTW, says that I have to update the book every 2 or 3 years. --Mike Michael Nadeau Editor/Publisher Classic Tech, the Vintage Computing Resource www.classictechpub.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Sellam Ismail" <foo(a)siconic.comTo: <cctalk(a)classiccmp.orgSent: Friday, January 10, 2003 12:28 PM Subject: Re: Help with pricing on vintage computers? http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0764316001/qid=1042219704/sr=8 -1/ref=sr_8_1/103-0020096-5964664?v=glance&s=books&n=507846 Festival ---- http://www.vintage.org www.VintageTech.com *

On Thu, 9 Jan 2003, John Allain wrote: It's on Amazon, for one ;) Ugh. I cannot express enough how much I abhor eBay prices. Unless you knock off the top 10 highest and bottom 10 lowest prices then take the average, the prices on eBay only reflect pricing in eBay dollars, which is to say it is based on some pricing that is of another dimension and has no meaning in our own universe. The corollary is that if there are not enough representative samples to knock off the top 10 and bottom 10 then eBay is not suitable to use as a means to price things. Buy Mike's book instead. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

On Sat, 11 Jan 2003, Nick Miller wrote: That is correct. And therefore, eBay will never be a useful tool for determining average value of a specific collectible computer due to the way the eBay auction mechanism encourages overbidding. This is not guaranteed, especially with some of the outrageous prices that have been paid for some machines there. Like, for instance, a $1000 TRS-80 Model 1. It's Mike's book ;) It's fine for insurance purposes perhaps, but not for trading computers. Look, if one wants to live in an eBay world where you buy and sell exclusively there then one is welcome to live in that other-dimensional economy. But in the real world, I don't want eBay prices to be affecting the value of a computer, especially when it threatens to drive the price up to ridiculous levels on common machines. On the average, you are paying a premium by way of the inflated sale price that each auction ends at. That's funny, I acquired most of the 1,700+ computers I have through newsgroups and mailing lists, plus flea markets, thrift stores, electronic surplus stores, etc. Probably less than 20 were acquired through eBay. Computer collecting on eBay is like going big game trophy hunting in a wild animal reserve. It's fun, and you bag the big ones, but you are certainly paying for the privelege of the easy score. I prefer to hunt out in the wild. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

On Mon, 13 Jan 2003, Marvin Johnston wrote: And as long as you're planning to buy or sell the item in question ON eBay. The next guy at a flea market to tell me "I can get $X for it on eBay" is going to get bitch-slapped. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

On Mon, 13 Jan 2003, Marvin Johnston wrote: I'll agree with that. Just like in the real world, sometimes you stumble upon great bargains. You also come across some real wishful thinking. But those bargain or inflated prices should not have a bearing on what the mean value of an item is. On the whole, eBay prices are inflated. Everyone knows this. ! Sometimes. But then there's cost of shipping and the uncertainty factor of now knowing exactly what you're getting until it's in your hands. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

I REALLY don't want to start a long thread on ebay pros & cons, but the post lawrence made got me thinking. I'll try to keep it lucid instead of trolling ;) It strikes me that when a manufacturer sets a price, he is planning on a production run of at least X machines, and hopefully production runs after the initial one if all goes well. So when they decide on a price, it has to do with market values for sure, but also for recouping their design and production costs. But what I'm driving at is the manufacturer knows he's going to make (and probably sell) at least X units. He has INVENTORY. He doesn't have to recoup his costs on one unit. He can discount and get less money for a system if he wants, because either he has already covered his production costs or because he needs to sell more units to get closer to same. Also keep in mind - the manufacturer's cost is generally fixed. It's the same cost for machine #1 as it is for machine #5000. Generally anyways. The ebay seller on the other hand, doesn't have this luxury. No inventory. Chances are he only has one item. Period. Forever. So it is clearly in his best interest to get the highest possible price. And I can't blame them one bit. The simple fact is... when a particular item on ebay goes for 100 times the value WE think it should have, to the person who bought it... well, it *IS* worth that much. And that's pretty much the definition of market value - what someone is willing to pay. And the ebay seller's costs... they DO fluctuate wildly. One guy may have bought the system for $500 before taking it to ebay, the other guy may have picked the same exact model system out of a dumpster behind his apartment for zero cost. Another guy may have emotional attachment which raises the price he would want. Others just have an unrealistic idea of what a system is "worth", probably cause of ebay *grin* So, I must say I despise the "high" prices of some stuff on ebay. Cause I have to pay them - sometimes. I hate that all the systems there go for "real" money, when, if ebay didn't exist, the "come and pick it up and you can have it" mentality would be a lot more prevalent. And folks like us would have a lot more cool vintage hardware - maybe. But, ebay is there, it is ubiquitous, and it does certainly establish "market value" as defined by what people are willing to pay. And actually, I am sure the high prices on ebay are not lost on junk dealers and "for profit" folks. As a matter of fact, I would bet the fact that you can get well over $1K for an Imsai 8080 on ebay, is DIRECTLY responsible for a LOT of Imsai 8080's NOT going into the dumpster. Is that such a bad thing? And when you have everything needed to make a system run except ONE single missing card... is it bad that you find that holy grail card on ebay? I don't think so. Not if it gets another vintage machine up and running. On the other hand, people tend to look at ebay completed items as "what an item is worth". The problem with this is that on ebay the prices fluctuate WILDLY for exactly the reasons I listed above. One guy may want a lot because he paid a lot for it. From the buyers prospective, when checking historical prices on ebay, it is hard to know what it will go for today, because on that day, there may have been 5 collectors who desperately wanted an item, driving the price way up. But by now, most of them may have already found one from other sources. So I guess I have to say I both love, and hate, ebay at the same time. It is not a good indicator of the "collectible value". But it is a very good indicator of 1-Is there a market for... and 2-What was it worth on that particular date and time. Jay West --- [This E-mail scanned for viruses by Declude Virus]

On Mon, 13 Jan 2003, Jay West wrote: Me either, since we've already been there, done that, got the t-shirt, then turned around and sold it on eBay. Define "market". If it sells for 100 times the average value that others would pay, is this "the" market? Or "a" market (a market of one)? There are, and have been, for decades, valid mathematical and actuarial methods for determining the value of a given object based on several criteria, including of course supply and demand. Why should ending prices of eBay auctions all of a sudden supercede that science? And I would guess that a probably equal number of IMSAI's did not go to the trash because the owner just couldn't get him/herself to simply throw it out. I've heard this story a lot. Heck, I have IMSAIs because of this reason. Yes, eBay is good for finding something that you really, really need and don't want to spend weeks or months searching for, and in that regard you are paying a premium for that luxury. Outside of eBay, that luxury is not afforded, and so therefore the price one must pay for the item outside of eBay should not follow eBay guidelines. Or even of true market value based on statistical means and averages. Which is not at all useful for long-term market valuation. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

Science ? Well, I'd go for common sense, and eBay is missing a lot of that. Fist, yes, it's a kind of a market, but not in a traditional sense, and not in the sense the usual economy theories use this term. To form a reliable (sometimes called true) price, several things need to come together. The most important is that the goods in question have to be comperable (standardised) and in a steady supply, right after followed by theneed for informed participants (Beside that, unrestricted access for sellers and buyers is the next one). And here already eBay fails. There are no standardized goods, nor is the suppl steady nore are Buyers and sellers 'informed'. EBay is just a collecion of non connected, single sales. Each may be described as a market in itself. but together they don't form single market and don't deliver true meter for prices. A stock exchenge, a quite good example for a true market, builds a price by leveling up all 'buy' and 'sell' at a given time. If a stock exchange would work like eBay, we could still live a fine life without all these financial news. Now one may argue, that eBay may have some of the fast pace of a s(t)ock exchange, but is rather like a classic business. Well, not wrong, but still the compareable offers (standardized product) and the steady supply is missing. The eratic prices at eBay are exacly a sign for these missing elements. In a classic market place, price changes are done with a damping. A grocery store doesn't rise it's prices as soon as the first customer is willing to pay the asked price, nor does it lower it if one is not willing to pay. The owner will watch his customers and compare to his competitors and rise or lower the price acordingly. Also as any real merchant he will include things like his price to buy or produce the goods and other factors like storage cost (if the goods are storeable at all). I think I don't have to mention the influence of 'marketing' the difference between a hyped up sale and a two liner can be a hunded times. All these things missing or not valid on eBay (when looking at classic computers). Therefore eBay does not deliver a dependable price line. Each and every auction just accounts for itself. Of couse, with proper knowledge and very carefull handling eBay may give hints about a general direction - but these are often more nothing else then general indicators to the over all economical situation. Sallams attempt to see eBay as a pure statistical source and normalizeing the prices by building averages and ignoring outliers may not be wrong, but there is still the problem of comperable goods. One just cant put a TRS-80 M1 Keyboard, a full unit (including the CRT) and a beautifull setup with all bells and whissles into one calculation. Gruss H. -- VCF Europa 4.0 am 03./04. Mai 2003 in Muenchen http://www.vcfe.org/

The science is wrong. That science is based on a supply that is offered to the demand audience. And that demand audience has always been limited and local (for the most part). With the internet, the demand now is expanded to millions of people. As far as the supply, it can be said that the supply has also expanded. But the reality is that the supply, for the most part, was a fixed number that has decreased since the items were manufactured. So we have an ever expanding demand with a shrinking supply. So, while the model is correct, the parametric values are all wrong and need updating to reflect a global demand, now.

Didn't I say the model was correct but the parametric values were wrong? science - systematized knowledge derived from observation, study, and experimentation. So, if that "observations, studies, and experiments" are wrong, then the "science" is wrong. I never said the model was wrong.

Obviously you did not grow up on a farm... William Donzelli aw288(a)osfn.org

Brian Chase wrote: I think your point of opportunity costs is a great one that is missed by a lot of people in all lines of work, not just ebay. For example, some things are more common in certain geographical regions than in others. It doesn't make a lot of sense to spend a small fortune in travel costs to save a relatively smaller amount of money ... at least if money is the concern :). Some people knock the ebay prices without knowing the background or motivation of the buyer. Your post starts to put some perspective on that!

On Tue, 14 Jan 2003, Sellam Ismail wrote: Mathematic *this*!!! http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2900526350 I am only the Messenger, and for those of us who prefer not to follow links... this auction (which ended *sucessfully*!!!) was for an 'egg' that her *CAT* 'laid' after "...ten minutes of shrieking and acting really bizarre.." Someone, possibly Short, Dark, and Handsome, paid a dollar for it. I'm just in awe. Off topic, but a fairly Cool Site: somebody is trolling eBay and culling out the wierder stuff - and collating it in one place for your Bemused Enjoyment: www.whowouldbuythat.com And I used to think that ASCII art of Nekkid Wimmin was the ultimate perversion of technology.... Cheerz John

No, this is not a put on and was told to me by the person who bought it (and it went to a VERY good home!!!) Because of its importance, the last I heard (about a year or two ago) it was still being researched to verify its authentity. What would make you think the person selling it would have known what it was :) ??? The person who bought it just happened to see a description that caught his eye; it is doubtful anyone else (or at least VERY few people) would have recognized it for what it was. Lawrence Walker wrote:

On Mon, 13 Jan 2003, Lawrence Walker wrote: Yeah, how certain was it that the item in question was authentic? Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

On Mon, 13 Jan 2003, Nick Miller wrote: ? $1,250 is what I would call about mean value for an Altair 8800. If that gave you a rush then more power to you. I can agree with that. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *

On Mon, 13 Jan 2003, Ethan Dicks wrote: That's what I ask them too. If I really want the item, I explain to them how much more of a hassle it is to sell on eBay: how they have to go through the trouble to take photos, come up with a description, wait a week, hope the winning bidder sends you the money in another week, pack the thing up, take it to the post office, etc. Not to mention that they are already here and I've got money in hand. Sometimes it works. Sellam Ismail Vintage Computer Festival ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ International Man of Intrigue and Danger http://www.vintage.org * Old computing resources for business and academia at www.VintageTech.com *