Computer Market Phases (Was: Our fine educational system (was : Login on VMS)) - test-drb@ccmp.vtda.org

28 Sep 2000

...
  -----Original Message-----
 From: Jerome Fine [mailto:jhfine@idirect.com]
 Douglas Quebbeman wrote:  Jerome Fine
replies:
 I agree that the 711 and 716 referred to below had the patch cables,
 but also as referred to below, the IBM 650 which arrived around
 1955 (if I remember correctly) was a full blown computer. 
[..snip..]
...
  Since the IBM 650 had over 20 KByes of memory (yes I
know it was on a
 drum, but it was still there) along with solid state memory of between 200 and
...
  600 bytes, I really do think it qualified as a full
blown computer - even though
...
  the 20 KBytes of memory (actually 2000 * 10 decimal
digit values) was on a
 drum.  And the I/O was mostly ONLY punch cards.  The version of the
 IBM 650 (sort of dates me - doesn't it) I worked with also had 3 tape drives.
Was I thinking of a 605? Or, despite its actual architecture,
was the 650 perhaps marketed as a calculator?
And yeah, patch panels, still got one or two of those...
...
  I realize that the CPU was probably slower than a
present day calculator.
 But for insurance companies, it was still far faster than a 711 and a card
 sorter and that 716 printer - especially the models with the tape drives.
 The key aspect that drove the computer revolution was that accounting
 with even the IBM 650 was far faster than a whole room full of clerks.
 IBM justified the price of each such computer based on how much it
 would save the customer rather than how much it cost to make the
 computer.  That computer market held for a long time and the companies
 that made computers had no trouble making a profit. 
Agreed.
...
  But I am really after what the market MIGHT be like in
2010?  In
 industrial countries, will the use of the computer be as necessary
 as the telephone - indeed will most (all?) phone conversations take
 place via a computer via the internet?  Will the internet become
 as widespread as phones are now?  Might almost everyone have
 their own cell phone and land lines kept only as an older system?
 When will the last x86 instruction set chip be made? 
The PSTN is a nearly flawless network. Not quite, but nearly...
my LOC has been overselling its switches recently. When I pick
up a phone at 8:30pm EDT and can't get dial tone, I get P-O'd
very quickly. Of course, we all know where all those switch
connections are being used for...  ;-)
...
  On a different note, might the use of cash (folding
money) become
 so rare that only the criminal element would require this mode
 of exchange.  If so, it might become more reasonable to ask
 the law abiding folk to give up a bit of their privacy, as well as
 the underground economy, and thereby be able to curb corruption.
 Since so much of the legal economy is already based on plastic
 and the internet (I hear that in Canada, cheques are way down
 and the Interact is the most popular way of buying groceries)
 which becomes not only safer for the buyer but many fewer
 bad cheques for the vendor. 
The other day, I needed to make an urgent medical purchase at
the local pharmacy (chemist for some of y'all), but was unable
to do so, because "the satellite link is down".
When businesses begin allowing customers to run a tab (as standard
policy) when they can't use their ATM cards for a transaction
(and we're talking about people who would either be denied a credit
card or forced into what nearly amounts to indentured servitude to
get one), then I'll say we're on our way to a cashless society.
But money that requires a working network link in order to be
used will never be acceptable to me. It's one thing to have to
wait a few minutes until they can make a connection (i.e. to get
a dial tone as I mentioned above); it's another to have to come
back the next day to make a purchase that's needed right _now_.
...
  Eliminating cash would be a fundamental change to
society.
 But the internet might make that possible.  I don't think that
 this type of speculation was included in Market Phases, but
 perhaps.  More OT I guess. 
Oops, yup, there we go again, right over the topic edge...
:-)
-dq