davis wrote:
William Donzelli wrote:
Forget
ten; apparently one well-known chip manufacturer quoted three
years at
us the other week for their latest generation of devices. I believe
that's
three years whether the thing's on or not too - natural decay of the
IC, not
something brought about by it being powered.
What "well-known chip manufacturer"? I find it hard to believe three
years as a target...they would be forcing themselves out of many, many
markets, effectively shooting themselves in the foot.
Damn sure, As senior bottle washer and code monkey for a small display
manufacturer, I would like to know what company is stupid enough to
quote 3 years.
Why is it so surprising? In the portable device arena, where the 'average'
person changes their gadgets every couple of years for ones with the latest
features, it's the vendors who are dictating ever-smaller, ever-faster chips
which necessitate the higher densities. They don't care if the thing dies in
three years. In fact, that works entirely in their interest as, providing
everybody's doing it (which they are it seems), it means they sell more
product than they would otherwise. Call it a good incentive for consumers to
upgrade.
I believe the three year stuff hasn't left the lab yet (and I suspect it
doesn't matter which chip manufacturer you go to - the densities involved mean
that's the sort of lifetime you get; it's not a by-product of the
manufacturing process used being 'wrong' in some way), but it's where things
are heading for the 'next generation' of compact, portable equipment.
Now, I don't much care for portable gadgets myself anyway - I wouldn't use a
phone to play music or access the 'net for instance, so I can get away with an
older model which hopefully has higher design lifetime. What worries me though
is the trend for other devices to follow the same "smaller, faster" design
parameters and with the prices falling through sheer numbers sold making them
commodity items. How long before it's acceptable for a laptop* or a home DVD
player to need replacing every three years?
* On the business side, that's probably getting close to how often they're
swapped out for a newer model anyway :(
What I'd *like* to see is some notion of design lifespan quoted as part of
product marketing - making it a legal requirement if necessary (as I believe
things like crash-test and fuel consumption data is for cars, at least in the
UK). That way at least it'd help raise lifespan as an issue amongst the public
(because let's face it, the average person seems to love throwing money at new
toys every couple of years anyway). The cynic in me says that the politicians
have a vested interest in keeping the corporations sweet by allowing them to
shift as much product as possible, though :-(