I wrote:
Some archivists suggest that it may not be possible to
read CD-ROMs
30 years from now, because they may have been replaced by something
else by then, just as the 7-track tape that was common 30 years ago
is all but impossible to read now.
Of course, this view overlooks the fact that 7-track tape drives were
large, expensive and typically not owned by individuals, whereas there
are millions of CD-ROM drives owned by individuals now. This suggests
that even if CD-ROM were to be obsoleted tomorrow, that it probably
still won't be that hard to turn up a working or repairable drive
30 years from now.
Perhaps in 30 years the CD-ROM problem will be more akin to that of
finding working 8-track players or 78 RPM turntables today. There are
still some around, but they aren't commonplace.