13 Apr
2005
13 Apr
'05
9 a.m.
From: "Vintage Computer Festival" <vcf at siconic.com>
Criticism is welcome; insults are not taken so well ;)
And I'm sorry if I
got a bit touchy after being described as a "dealer", but in my opinion
that word has a negative connotation in this hobby, and I don't want
people to be left with the wrong impression of just what it is I do. And
in case you don't pay attention to signatures, mine has included a link to
the VintageTech website for at least the past four years, and a quick
stroll through the pages of my website explains EXACTLY what I do. No
where on that website has it ever (and you can check with www.archive.org)
said that I buy & sell computers. And if you're really paying attention,
you'll notice that the "Buy/Sell/Trade Vintage Computers" included in my
signature is followed by "at http://marketplace.vintage.org"quot;, and a quick
stroll over there quickly reveals it's a trading place for collectors
that I happen to host along with Patrick Rigney.
Admittedly, you have a name and a reputation, and many people know who you
are.
However, expecting everyone to have known or cared enough to follow your
links and figured out who you are and what you do, is a bit of a stretch. I
have followed the links, and still have, at best, a hazy notion of how your
days are spent. Which is (or should be) OK.
> forget that there's no certification
involved. I hope you aren't
> disappointed when someone doesn't respect what you're saying.
> It's not your fault.
I think the point was that we all wish everyone else appreciated our
opinions. I certainly feel the world undervalues my opinions; I put a lot
of work into forming them, after all. But they don't value my opinions as I
do, and they won't. (At least that's what I got out of it.)
What I was trying to explain with my previous message
was that there's a
difference between watching eBay and using that as a guide versus having a
wide breadth and depth of experience and knowledge coupled with a long
historical outlook and therefore having a strongly developed instinct for
what things are "worth". I'm not saying I'm the only one here who
knows
how to do this...far from it, as I know of at least half a dozen people
here who's valuations I would trust and who could just as authoritatively
provide appraisals if they chose to do that. But I have made it my
business to understand this market, and I'm confident that I do, and to
have people constantly hold up eBay as the "market" is bothersome to me.
I understand your frustration, but I still disagree. Ebay is "the market"
in a sense similar to the way we say wall street is "the market". That is
the place where large (relatively) numbers of buyers and sellers are doing
business. It simply does not matter that you, or Warren Buffet, can get
better deals elsewhere.
That may get a knee jerk, so let me make an example. I recently acquired a
BC80M cable. When I acquired this cable, I looked at various dealers who
stock obsolete DEC cables, and I saw prices from $150-$225. Those prices
make sense to me. If I had a machine that was down, and I needed it up
right now, those prices are reasonable, probably even cheap, to get it up
again with a minimum of fuss.
I also figure the price on eBay would be about half that. But with eBay, I
have to wait for someone to list it, and take my chances with the others
that want it. The extra $80 that the dealer wants, is the price of the
speed, convenience, and security. It goes to cover the dealer's costs in
providing that to me.
There is a scrap dealer here in town I could have asked about the cable. I
might have gotten it for substantially less than the eBay price. I
certainly would have, if shipping were involved. But I'd have saved him the
trouble of listing it, shipping it, etc. Ebay and the dealer also spare me
the hassle of cruising dozens of surplus places, looking for that darn BC80M
cable. (Actually, I was looking for BC80J, but BC80M will do.)
On the other hand, what I actually paid for my cable was $0. Nada. A
friend happens to have one, and will ship it to me as a favor. Does that
mean the value of the item is $0? No. It means I have better connections
than the average guy. So, in my opinion, does getting it from the scrap
dealer.
Each of these venues has a rational price for the item. (Even my friend,
who is no doubt hoping I can help figure out his power supply problem.)
Which one we call "the market" should depend on which is available to the
average buyer.
The real problem in all this is that this hobby, as a
whole, is so
un/mis-informed when it comes to the values of old computers that you
consistently get these wild price fluctuations. And the fact that most of
the actual sales occur through eBay only exacerbates the problem, because
the prices can and do wildly fluctuate there as well. A stupid bidding
war can erupt between two inexperienced bidders who let their emotions
take them for a ride, driving up the price to a ridiculous level for
something that is a clearly being over-valued by both. And yet others
get lucky by using the search engine creatively to find deals hidden away
where others don't find them, and walk away with virtual steals.
I think the price fluctuations are easily explained by people trying to
optimize their convenience, etc. I don't see that as irrational. People
who want it *now* will ocasionally skew eBay prices toward dealer prices
(and that's OK).
It's also OK that some put in extra work and pay for the item that way,
rather than with cash.
How many times does it need to be repeated that eBay
is NOT the Market? I
know a lot of people got into this hobby by assembling their collection
from eBay and so it is all they know, but understand that eBay is ONE PART
of the Market, and to think that the world is eBay, and eBay is flat, and
you fall off the world at the edges is foolish.
Sure, but we still have the semantic quibble about what people mean when
they say "the market" :-).
If you want to use auction results as a valuation, you
would be better
served to use the sales numbers at the Vintage Computer Marketplace. It
consists of a MUCH BETTER informed group of users (buyers and sellers
alike) and therefore the sales are way more consistent with what I would
consider "actual market value". It doesn't get nearly the volume that
eBay does, but we're hoping to change that soon.
Just a speculation, but I suspect the prices there will get more like
eBay's, if and when you get the volume.
In the meantime, if anyone wants a quick & dirty
valuation of something,
I'll be happy to provide a valuation via e-mail. You can then couple my
response with whatever other information you have to make a much more
informed decision to buy or sell.
That is a valuable service. Thanks!
Vince