4 Jul
2012
4 Jul
'12
2:01 a.m.
On 7/4/2012 12:24 AM, Dave McGuire wrote:
Desktops (by which I assume you mean
"non-tablets", and include
"laptops") may be going out of "fashion", but they're not going
away.
Software developers, and don't underestimate how many there are, aren't
coding on tablets. Real computers will continue to have a place for a
long time to come.
I think the makers of minicomputers thought this as well, from DEC down
to Computer Automation, and the whole lot of them. Once the business
model for the device shifts away I don't see a half a cup there, I see
disaster. I don't think there is a way to see a shift that leaves an
opening for something when things start to shift away from it.
The people that you hire in 5 years won't have a clue about what to do
w/o hand jestures talking to their pads, listening to them, an so
forth. The supply of desktops may stay there, but I suspect the model
that will survive is the thin client, not the reasonable Linux ready
desktop.
And there is already a huge fuss about the hardware protection key to
even get the damn things to boot.
I don't have a good vision of what is there. I have been thru too many
paradigm shifts since they took away my keypunch, 2741, and 1403 printer
to think this is good news.
Seriously I was worried as the laptops started to sell well that there
would be little incentive to grow the computing platform for the
desktop. The whole Ipad thing has turned the IT type busniess model
sideways in that it is so cheap to get on board with a "pad" now. It
can't help but change the way things are done. My suggested way of thin
clients and servers may not be it, but I suspect it won't be too far
from that.
Note that there are already a number of game companies running central
servers complete with modified graphics cards and streaming out to pads,
as well as the fact that an Ipad or android can run a thin client just
fine.
Jim