I just assume
that the existing ones
won't be replaced any time soon (since they presumably
work) and that
the natural replacement rate is relatively low.
Extremely low. The tube rigs being replaced will become the
standby units, and the current standby units (many dating to
the 1950s) will go out to
pasture.
The people I know who are into telephones seem to
let it get out of control and start to try to build
major exchanges in the back yard.
I guess that there will soon be another breed of
collector with large transmitter masts and
glowing valves in the back garden :-)
Antonio
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Antonio Carlini arcarlini(a)iee.org