14 May
1998
14 May
'98
4:03 p.m.
On Thu, 14 May 1998, Marvin wrote:
a TRS-80 Model 4P and a Coco 2. IMNSHO, the values of
all computers will
vary greatly depending on the knowledge and experience of the person
doing the valuation. Hmmm, sounds just like *every* other form of
collecting.
I used to collect coins when I was a kid, and the Blue Book (wholesale
values) and Red Book (retail values) were my bibles. Coins had a pretty
good grading system, and you could find fairly reliable production data.
I don't know of anybody that has tried to do anything close to this for
computers.
I, for one, do like to see what E-Bay is doing. I
kept track for a
while of the people who were bidding on the stuff, and there were a
number of people there who were collectors. Last year, I was bidding on
a Sol-20, and the guy who outbid me won the bid at $800 or so. High? I
talked with the guy later on, and the machine was in mint condition, had
all the original documentation, and also included some of the
peripherals. The Altairs that have been sold there are *all* selling
below the prices I have seen for similar systems.
eBay and other online auctions are probably the best gauges of prices
there are, because they represent fairly efficient markets. In fact, some
online auctions that move their own inventory do regression analysis that
tells them more or less what price they can expect to get for any given
item. If somebody were to do the same analysis on person-to-person
auction data, that would be a very good starting place for a price
guide (especially from an auction like Haggle Online that also stores
condition, make, and model information :-).
If you only look at one or two anecdotal transactions, that doesn't tell
you much.
FWIW, I tend to value my collection in the millions of
dollars. And
that is probably conservative ... if one were to go back in time and
look at what the stuff cost new :).
The real question is what value does your insurance company place on your
collect. My guess is that they would value an Apple 1 based on a twenty
year depreciation starting with a $666 basis!
BTW, if, hypothetically, I were to find somebody willing to sell me a
Heathkit EC-1 analog computer in good condition, what value would you
experts assign to it, and what would you base your valuation on?
-- Doug