On Apr 21, 2012, at 10:34 PM, Guy Sotomayor wrote:
I would argue that todays computer systems are
*much* more reliable
than the systems that were in general use 10-20 (or more) years ago.
On what grounds?
How 'bout MTBF?
I think you're arguing about different things. Today's PCs are largely
junk and generally less reliable than those of years ago, but I'd say
that's more due to poor engineering on the part of the designers of the
actual systems. They take shortcuts, don't do proper thermal
engineering (which is a lot more important in today's PCs than it was
20 years ago), and generally do a poor enough job that you can't
expect an assembled system to last more than about 5 years with any
degree of confidence. BGAs, in particular, do a great job of pulling
their pins off the board when subjected to thermal cycles; if you don't
design your thermal relief well enough, it's one of the best ways to
hasten your system's doom.
Note that it's not generally the ICs failing in these systems, at least
not on their own. It's usually their containers that cause the various
failures.
Today's high-end systems, though, are much more robust and designed
with durability in mind (well, a lot of them, anyway). I'd say you're
about as likely to find an IBM Z-series mainframe alive in 30 years
as you are to find a VAX alive (not dead due to natural causes, in any
case) today.
I will cop to MOS being somewhat less resilient to actual abuse than
bipolar logic, and things with tinier gates do exacerbate that; beyond
that, I seem to recall that smaller geometries are a bit more
susceptible to electromigration, and that tends to get worse with
higher temperatures. Of course, the actual MTBF data doesn't always
bear that out, so I could have been told wrong.
- Dave
(amusing side note about MTBF: we had a customer who developed a
really awful board, but claimed it had an MTBF of over 100 years; it
turns out the way they "calculated" this was by adding the MTBFs of
the individual components)