23 Apr
2012
23 Apr
'12
12:45 a.m.
On 2012 Apr 22, at 12:06 PM, Tony Duell wrote:
You have contradictory findings because it's your limited and narrow
experience. Whatever or however many instances you have dealt with,
they come through a filter of circumstances before they get to you.
An assessment begins with a relative comparison of production
quantities, followed by an assessment of the selective process of how
and why the (very small) sample set happened to end up in your hands.
Modern systems are made by the tens and hundreds of millions, 1970s
minis were made by the thousands and tens-of-thousands.
I've received more digital cameras to repair lately than 1960's
discrete-component calculators. Does that mean modern digital cameras
are less reliable than 1960s discrete calculators?
Adding another data point, I will contradict the findings of the two
of you: I've seen more failures of [simple] SSI devices than
[complex] VLSI.
None of these 3 anecdotes (mine or those of the two of you) are
indicative of the comparitive reliability of these items.
Oh come now. And you expect us to believe comments based on data
that's
not even available? Sorry, I'll stick with what my experience as
taught
me, modifying it on the basis of more experience.
On Apr 21,
2012, at 7:08 PM, Mouse wrote:
Except that your reality is a *small* sample set. When you look
at data
for 1,000,000's of components you'll see different results. Until
you look at
And you have _ersonally_ looked at millions of components? Sorry, I've
seen too much bogus data already...
Extrapolating long tail effects from single samples does not yield
accurate results.
Neither does assuming that theory matches reality. truly large data sets and do the appropriate
statistical analysis
all you're
really talking about is anecdotal evidence.
How coome 2 of use here (at least) seem to have contradictory
findings? It contradicts tony's experience. It contradicts
mine as well.
Do you
have experience pointing the other way? (I would tend to assume
not,
since if you had I would expect you to have mentioned it by now, but
assumptions don't make for good data either.)
Unfortunately I can't really point to it since it's proprietary to
the companies