I quite agree as marketing gets in the way of making sense of the truly
teeny-tiny. Because of quantum mechanics maybe Moore’s Law is defunct if
only applied to a few layers. True 3D production may be the answer but with
today’s technology this may not be possible. Yet the answer could be
stacking chips in a true 3D fashion while employing the very latest in
cooling technology.
Happy computing.
Murray 🙂
On Thu, Jul 9, 2026 at 11:08 AM Paul Koning via cctalk <
cctalk(a)classiccmp.org> wrote:
The current scaling numbers are in many ways
marketing numbers rather
than a reflection of the geometric realities of earlier decades. Early on
a single geometry increment would apply more or less to most of the chip.
That's no longer true. So to the extent that 2 nm geometry appears at all,
it's only in one or a few layers, with most layers having significantly
larger geometry.
Nevertheless, those numbers are still mindboggling. Especially when you
consider the machine (the EUV stepper) that has to project those patterns
at that resolution onto the wafer, at high speed. The fact that it's
possible at all is just amazing; the fact that only one company in the
world is capable of doing it isn't much of a surprise.
I saw a video about that technology which said that it's analogous to
shooting at a dime on the moon, from earth, and asking "which side of the
dime do you want me to hit?" I think that's a slight exaggeration, but
hitting WIlilam Tell's apple on the moon, from earth, seems accurate
enough. Yowza.
The big problem at those tiny geometries is that devices are small enough
that quantum mechanics is a major source of trouble. For example,
insulators that small aren't really insulators.
paul
On Jul 8, 2026, at 8:41 PM, Murray McCullough via
cctalk <
cctalk(a)classiccmp.org> wrote:
We can stand in awe as classic computerists at the advancement of
technology: I recently read that chip technology size is at 2 nanometers
for ultra-large scale processors. In 1971 it was 10,000 nanometers or 10
microns. This is a 5000x reduction in size in 55 years. One has to ask:
Is
Moore’s Law still alive?
Happy computing?
Murray :-)